Karadag | Investor Data Room

INVESTMENT THESIS / 001

One energy asset.
Two value paths.

Compare a utility-scale solar export case with an integrated, mountain-protected data center serving premium cloud and AI workloads.

Incremental cash multiple — Incremental net operating cash per euro of incremental capex; lifetime, unlevered, and undiscounted

INVESTMENT CASE

Scenario presets

PVGIS production, official 2025 PTF, 2026 Karaman transmission tariffs, public H100 service pricing, and operator active-IT evidence.

Solar baseline S01

— Net present value

IRR: —
Payback: —
Cash multiple: —
Profitability index: —
LCOE: —

Solar + data center S02

— Net present value

IRR: —
Payback: —
Cash multiple: —
Profitability index: —
Lifetime incremental capex: —

Energy architecture OPS

Solar generation year 1: —
Effective PUE: —
Cooling reduction: —

HOW TO READ THE RETURNS

Absolute value and capital efficiency answer different questions.

NPV: How much discounted value is created, in euros—not business size.
IRR: The annualized return implied by the timing of project cash flows.
Cash multiple: Lifetime net operating cash per euro of capex, without discounting.
Profitability index: Discounted revenue per euro of discounted total cost; above 1.00 creates value.
Payback: How long nominal cumulative project cash flow takes to recover investment.

Calculating the current return interpretation…

UNLEVERED CASH FLOW

Annual project cash flow

Solar only Coupled

STABILIZED ENERGY ROUTING

Solar utilization

—self-use

Data center: —
Grid export: —
Grid import: —

Hourly solar matching from a 2005–2023 PVGIS profile against a flat compute load at the selected utilization after the commissioning ramp. Storage, curtailment, outages, and grid constraints are not yet dispatched.

PVGIS 5.3 · KARADAG COORDINATE

Monthly solar production profile

PRIMARY DATA

—Annual mean

—At or below 20°C

—95th percentile

—Above 35°C

Fixed, optimally inclined crystalline-silicon system with 14% system loss at 37.181° N, 33.222° E. Long-run PVGIS-SARAH3 estimate using 2005–2023 meteorological data. The 18% passive cooling reduction is an owner-approved model basis. These temperatures inform equipment sizing and minor operating variation.

DECISION SNAPSHOT

What the model says now

Value created—

NPV scale ratio—

Direct annual solar share

Physical utilization—

Billable utilization—

Avoided grid emissions—

Evidence coverage—

Next investment gate Price the excluded land, grid, tunnel, fee, and security scopes and obtain contractable sovereign-compute terms.

CAPITAL WORK BREAKDOWN / NO DOUBLE COUNTING

What the initial build actually buys.

Facility construction and active IT equipment use separate evidence, operating costs, and replacement treatment.

Solar generation asset —

PV modules, balance of system, and solar construction scope.

Protected facility —

Shell, electrical, mechanical, and the mountain premium—excluding active IT.

Active IT hardware —

Servers, accelerators, storage, and networking performing the workload.

Full target-build model capex —

Commissioning ramp: —
Active IT refresh event: —
Refresh cycle: —
Facility renewal: —
Variable grid stack: —
Solar export capture factor: —
Captured export price: —
Grid import timing factor: —
Time-adjusted grid energy: —
Fixed transmission tariff: —
Contracted grid demand: —
Annual fixed grid cost: —

Land, external utility works, professional fees, abnormal groundworks, and financing remain outside these inputs until project quotations are obtained.

ASSUMPTIONS LAB / LIVE MODEL

Stress the investment case.

Every control recalculates both scenarios. Values are illustrative screening assumptions.

DUE DILIGENCE / LIVE REGISTER

Risk before rhetoric.

Every key thesis is paired with an explicit uncertainty, owner action, and severity assessment.

—critical risks

—risks shown

20maximum score

Category	Risk	Score	Mitigation / next evidence

SOURCE PROVENANCE / REVIEWED 2026-07-28

Evidence ledger.

Primary inputs link back to their origin. Commercial assumptions remain visibly separated from sourced benchmarks.

Search sources

PROJECT LANGUAGE

Financial glossary.

Filter definitions

MODEL BOUNDARY / VERSION 0.5

Transparent by construction.

Real asset cash flows

Unlevered, pre-tax cash flow with staged commissioning, degradation, separate export-price escalation, two-stage PPA pricing, split facility and active IT costs, fixed and variable grid charges, inverter replacement, and six-year active IT refresh cycles.

Comparable scenarios

The coupled case retains the same solar asset, adds protected compute infrastructure, consumes available solar, and exports the balance.

Known exclusions

Debt, tax, batteries, constrained grid dispatch, monthly construction phasing, FX, land, permitting, water, network connectivity, and probabilistic risk remain future work.

Screening use only. This prototype is not investment, engineering, legal, security, or procurement advice. Independent diligence and sourced market inputs are required before a capital decision.